US Role in Syria Unclear in Wake of Assad's Fall From Power
As a new government is set to form in Syria following a sudden coup earlier this week, the United States鈥 response to the political upheaval appears uncertain. Rebel groups , Bashar al-Assad, on Dec. 8, 2024, sending the dictator into exile in Russia.
President Joe Biden has warned that the rebel groups have a 鈥溾 and said that the U.S. will be watching the groups鈥 actions. But President-elect Donald Trump has said that the U.S. in the sudden takeover and its aftermath.
Amy Lieberman, a politics and society editor at The Conversation U.S., spoke with Jordan Tama, a scholar of U.S. foreign policy听at 海角换妻, to better understand the role that the U.S. has played in Syria 鈥 and what Assad鈥檚 sudden fall from power might mean for this relationship.
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What is most important to understand about US engagement with Syria?
U.S. involvement in Syria dates back to at least 2011, when the , a pro-democracy Middle East protest movement, broke out and .
This prompted a brutal crackdown by the Syrian government, led by Syrian leader al-Assad. Some of the protesters then became part of rebel groups in Syria and fought against the Assad government, resulting . The U.S. immediately imposed on the government of Syria.
In 2013, the to some of the rebel groups that were resisting the Assad government. That year, the Syrian military also crossed a 鈥溾 that had been set by then-President Barack Obama by using . Despite pressure to , Obama opted not to intervene once Assad agreed to destroy Syria鈥檚 chemical weapons 鈥 a commitment that Assad did not fully .
In 2014, the Islamic State group, often known as ISIS or IS, . The U.S. deployed forces directly to . By 2019, the U.S. had severely weakened IS, and the U.S. scaled back its presence. The U.S. never accepted the Assad government鈥檚 legitimacy, but it did become largely resigned to Assad鈥檚 rule.
What does US involvement currently look like?
The U.S. has remained involved in Syria in several ways. First, it has to prevent ISIS from regrouping.
Second, the U.S. has given more than US$1 billion in military assistance to more moderate . Much of this aid has gone to the Syrian Democratic Forces, a military force led by the Kurds, a minority ethnic group that controls northeast Syria and has worked closely with the U.S. on fighting ISIS while maintaining its opposition to Assad.
Third, the U.S. has kept heavy financial sanctions in place against the Syrian government dating back to 2011. And fourth, the U.S. has been from the country鈥檚 13-year civil war.
The U.S. did not play a direct role in the recent toppling of the Syrian government. The Syrian rebel groups that overthrew Assad are , which seeks to weaken the Syrian branch of another Kurdish group called the . to control over its own Kurdish population.
What does the overthrow of the Assad government mean for the US?
The U.S. is not yet making any firm judgments about whether this change is going to be good for the U.S. Overall, Assad鈥檚 fall opens the possibility of improved relations between the U.S. and Syria, but that will depend, in large part, on the new leadership in Syria.
, or HTS, the group that led the overthrow of Assad, has ruled in an authoritative manner in the area of .
ISIS also represents a continuing concern for the U.S. The U.S. has carried out a series of in recent days in an effort to prevent ISIS from gaining ground following the collapse of the Assad government.
What does Trump鈥檚 election mean for the US engagement in Syria?
Trump has taken the position that Syria is . During his first term, Trump wanted to pull out all of the , and his advisers persuaded him to . Whether Syria鈥檚 new leaders act in an authoritarian manner likely won鈥檛 matter to Trump.
But Trump is strongly pro-Israel, and he will likely not have any problem with Israel carrying out strikes in Syria.
Under Trump, the U.S. will probably not be a major player shaping events in Syria, but I think it is in the nation鈥檚 interest to remain engaged, because what happens in Syria does affect the rest of the Middle East 鈥 and, by extension, the U.S.
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