海角换妻

0:07 聽聽聽聽聽Madi Minges: From the School of International Service at 海角换妻 in Washington, this is Big World, where we talk about something in the world that truly matters. I'm Madi Minges.

0:16 聽聽聽聽聽Earl Anthony Wayne: AMLO is very popular, very influential, and many people believe that he will continue to be influential even when Sheinbaum is president. So that's one of the big questions, will she show her independence and actually move in some different directions in the months ahead?

0:38 聽聽聽聽聽MM: That was Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne. He joins us today to talk about Mexico's democracy and US-Mexico relations.

0:48 聽聽聽聽聽MM: 2024 is a monumental year for global elections. In an article published last November, The Economist dubbed 2024 "the biggest election year in history," writing that countries home to more than half of the world's population would be sending voters to the polls this year. Some of those elections remain upcoming, like the US general election in November, but many others have passed. In June, voters in Mexico went to the polls and made history when they elected the nation's first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum. Her six-year term began on October 1st.

1:23 聽聽聽聽聽MM: Today, we're talking about the future of Mexico's democracy and what its recent election means for US-Mexico relations. I'm Madi Minges, and I'm joined by Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne. He is a former US ambassador to Mexico and a distinguished Diplomat in Residence in the Department of Foreign Policy and Global Security here at the School of International Service. In addition to his role at 海角换妻, Ambassador Wayne co-chairs the Mexico Institute Advisory Board. Ambassador, thanks for joining Big World.

1:53 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: It's great to be with you, Madi.

1:55 聽聽聽聽聽MM: Before we launch into the specifics of Mexico's domestic politics, I was hoping we could start by talking about why Mexico is so important to the US.

2:06 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: Well, there's no other country in the world that touches the daily lives of more Americans than Mexico, and that comes in the form of trade, of family ties, of culture, of history, of illicit trade also as we hear about with the drug trade and also migration. So all of that combination just means that we are really interconnected, even though most Americans don't realize how interconnected we are.

2:37 聽聽聽聽聽MM: And I think that's really important to remember as we're talking about this election in Mexico that has passed. This election saw Mexico's first female president being elected, Claudia Sheinbaum. It marks a historic moment in the nation's electoral history. Sheinbaum, she's a close ally of the outgoing president, Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador. He's better known as AMLO. Can you tell us a little bit about Claudia Sheinbaum? Who is she?

3:08 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: Well, she's a scientist by education, specialized in environmental questions. She was a member of the UN large group that worked on climate change. The group got a Nobel Prize for their work. She studied and did some graduate study in California at the University of California, one of the labs there. She's been a political activist for a long time on the left side of the political spectrum. She rose up in the Morena Party, which is AMLO's political party that was just created a few years ago. She was last the mayor of Mexico City, which is almost it's like a governor because of the size of Mexico City. And so she was chosen by him after that term as governor. She was very close to him and has been very supportive of all of his policies.

4:08 聽聽聽聽聽MM: Given that close relationship with AMLO, as you had mentioned, what do you anticipate Sheinbaum's presidency will mean for Mexico?

4:18 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: Well, I think it's important to look at what happened during AMLO's six years in office. He remained very popular throughout his whole six years in office. He had press conferences five days a week for two hours or so and really dominated the news flow in Mexico for that time. He redesigned the social programs in Mexico to give money directly to individuals, not using NGOs or other process, and thus tied that money directly back to him. He spoke in what we would consider a very folksy way to the lower middle class and the working class, and was very successful in that as evident by the fact that he still has 60% popularity at the end of his six years in office.

5:12 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: But at the same time, criminal activity continued to be tremendously damaging to the country. He did not fulfill a number of his promises to eliminate poverty. He did reduce poverty to a certain degree, but extreme poverty actually increased in the country. And he had a set of vociferous critics going after him, and he and his critics regularly publicly went after each other. He would use his warning press conferences to attack individuals who had criticized him. He would even get their tax records and publish them and reveal them at his morning press conferences, something that we would never allow in the United States.

6:00 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: He attacked the Supreme Court on a regular basis because it found a number of things he tried to do as unconstitutional, correctly interpreting what he was trying to do as against the words of the Constitution. He attacked the National Elections Commission on a regular basis even though it was one of the most respected election commissions in the world. So I think most people would say that we saw during that six years a decline in democratic practices in Mexico. So he remained very popular, but those concerned about the strength of democracy in Mexico were very, very worried. In fact, just this week, President Zedillo, who was last president under the PRI Party and the one who actually managed the transition to real democracy, which only took place in 2000, the first time a non-PRI candidate had won the presidency in Mexico, came out and and expresses his deep worry that Mexico is moving toward an autocratic system.

7:12 聽聽聽聽聽MM: So given all of that, is there fear that under a Sheinbaum presidency Mexico's democracy will be further eroded?

7:23 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: Well, there is a concern, and we'll have to wait to see what she actually does. One of the final things that AMLO did on leaving office was to introduce a series of constitutional reforms. For example, the most massively notable one is changing the whole judicial system to have every federal judge in the country be elected. And that will probably lead to most state judges also being elected.

7:51 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: Now, we have elections of judges in the United States, but they're often criticized because they tend to politicize the judgeships going forward, many people believe. And that's really the fear in Mexico also, that this is really just a move to allow the judges to be much more under the influence of the executive branch and the presidency. He also has a number of reforms proposed to weaken the legislative branch and to take the National Elections Institute and move it from an independent agency to inside the Mexican government, which historically, one of the major shifts that allowed democracy to emerge in Mexico was creating an independent elections institute. So many, many observers are worried about the direction that Mexico's going and are worried that it could continue to move in that direction of a system dominated by the presidency and not having checks and balances.

8:58 聽聽聽聽聽MM: And to clarify, Sheinbaum, those reforms that you'd mentioned, she is in favor of many of those.

9:04 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: She has supported them up until this point. There are some of them that have not yet been enacted into law, and we'll have to see if she continues to support implementing them going forward. But AMLO is very popular, very influential, and many people believe that he will continue to be influential even when Sheinbaum is president. So that's one of the big questions, will she show her independence and actually move in some different directions in the months ahead?

9:38 聽聽聽聽聽MM: Ambassador, I want to mention, I know you were actually on the ground in Mexico during this election in June. Can you tell us a little bit about that? What did you see? What did you notice? What did you observe?

9:51 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: Well, the election process was very well organized. They do have an outstanding elections institute. But you could see the polarization evident in the country. I visited some relatively upper middle class neighborhoods, so there were long lines waiting two to three hours to vote. And in talking to a number of the people, it was clear they always are going to vote against AMLO's candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum. I then went to several very popular districts, lower middle class districts in Mexico City, and when I got there, there were no voters. I asked why, and they said, "Well, they all came out this morning. Morena has been working in the neighborhoods for weeks to organize everybody, and they organized them all and they came out and voted early this morning." So there weren't really serious questions about the process of voting, but there were a lot of questions of AMLO manipulating all the messaging using his morning press conferences to promote his own positions and Claudia Sheinbaum's positions using other programs to build support for the government, a number of things which were not supposed to be undertaken according to Mexican law.

11:08 聽聽聽聽聽MM: You'd mentioned that AMLO has a very high approval rating as he's leaving office. What do you believe his legacy will be?

11:22 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: Well, I think clearly he'll be seen as a president who spoke to the common Mexican and won their loyalty. He was very effective in doing that. And as I mentioned earlier, he combined that with redirecting a number of social programs to give money directly to the elderly, to raise the minimum wage to show that he was delivering for common people. Now, there are many questions about whether the way he was delivering is actually the best one or the best ones for the development of the country. But Mexicans clearly absorb this in a very positive way and are extremely supportive. We'll see how that legacy holds over time.

12:13 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: In fact, it is quite impressive how despite the number of homicides, there were a record number of homicides in Mexico during his six years in office, no other president had that high of a record of homicides, he still remained very popular. When you ask people, individual, "Do you like what AMLO is doing on security?" they were all very critical. But when it came to voting and overall, was he a president that they wanted to see those policies continue? "Yes," they all said, and Claudia Sheinbaum won 59% of the vote.

12:51 聽聽聽聽聽MM: I want to turn now to discussing US-Mexico relations. You had mentioned that AMLO's party, Morena, had passed a controversial judicial overhaul bill in September that will require judges to be elected by popular vote. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the significance of this legislation and specifically what ripple effect it will have on Mexico's democracy and on the billions of dollars of investments from the United States.

13:22 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: Certainly I can do that. So let me just mention, there are four big pillars to US-Mexico relations. Trade investment is one of them. Border management is another one. Migration control and management is the third. And then public security and crime is the fourth. The judicial reform actually touches on economics and investment, and it touches on public security.

13:50 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: Let me start with the economics. Many CEOs are quite worried about what the impact will be on the investment climate. Can they expect certainty in the decisions by the new judges? Because all of the judges with great experience over time, whether they're honest, dishonest or great judges or mediocre judges, that experience is going to be put aside. All we know right now is the minimum requirement is that you have five years' experience somehow in the legal field, which is not a great deal of experience required to run. So many CEOs, Mexicans also, but US CEOs that I've talked to are being very cautious and saying, "We're holding back on new investments until we see what happens." So there's that aspect.

14:39 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: The other aspect is many people are worried that cartels will use their money to influence the selection of judges. You already have a problem in Mexico where the impunity rate, that is the rate of people that get away with crimes, is over 92%. So that is really high. And this judicial reform did nothing to address that really serious problem, which requires changes in the prosecutorial system, in the investigation system, in the police forces. This reform did nothing to touch that. So the real problem of the law enforcement system as I see it is this impunity rate and the need to bring that down to actually bring those guilty to justice. So that still is out there. So those two things are hanging over this judicial reform as it moves forward. And you can imagine the sort of maybe chaos or at least confusion that's going to take place as you try to figure out how to elect 15,000 judges.

15:47 聽聽聽聽聽MM: Ambassador, I would be remiss if I ended this episode without asking you about the impact of the upcoming US presidential election on Mexico. At the time that we're recording this episode, we're still several weeks away from the election, and both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are continuing to campaign fiercely. So last question, how do you envision the outcome of the US presidential election, how will that impact US-Mexico relations?

16:19 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: Well, I think as everybody listening probably knows, there are two giant issues that involve Mexico that are being debated regularly in the election: how to manage migration and how to deal with fentanyl and other drugs coming across the border from Mexico into the United States. And so up until now what we've seen on the migration side is a fair amount of cooperation actually by the Mexican government to bus migrants back from the US-Mexico border to southern Mexico. They make their way forward, they're then bused back again, it's called the carousel. But that carousel has been very helpful in reducing the number of border crossers into the United States, and that's combined with the US' new regulations to greatly drop the number of people crossing the border. That's going to remain a big issue. But as you know, Trump has said he's going to deport millions from the United States, which would be a massive effort, and many of them would go back to Mexico because the largest number of irregular per migrants in the United States are Mexicans. And that's long been the case, so that will be a big challenge if he were elected for the new government.

17:36 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: Similarly, a number of the Republicans have talked about using military means to go after cartels in Mexico if the fentanyl flows continue. That would set off a serious crisis with the government of Mexico because they would not be able politically to accept US military operations in Mexico without responding strongly to that. So again, we don't know if it would happen, but it could be certainly a great point of tension with a Mexican government going forward.

18:10 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: If Harris is re-elected, I think we'll see an effort to continue to try and work with Mexico to manage migration. There is cooperation on public security in fentanyl, and I think you would see a stronger effort to try to get the Mexicans to cooperate more sincerely. There's really now much more of an arms-length cooperation than most experts would like to see. I think the Harris administration will press to make that closer. And I think Claudia Sheinbaum would be open to that because she's shown a willingness, really, to be firmer with crime also. I think there'll be a difference. There'll be tensions no matter who gets elected, difficult problems to work out, including in the trade area, that I have to mention that includes Chinese investments in Mexico and the flow-through of Chinese goods through Mexico into the United States. But I think there'd be a whole different tenor of cooperation depending on who gets elected in the US.

19:13 聽聽聽聽聽MM: I know I said last question, but I have a follow-up that I'm curious about. I guess, given the rhetoric from Trump, he's threatening deportation, he's threatening to militarize the border, versus it's a very different approach from the Democrats, I guess, how do people in domestic politics, how do politicians in Mexico feel about that, how does the general public feel about the rhetoric around that? I mean, do you have a sense that there's offense taken from one side? I don't know, I guess I'm just curious how that's received by politicians there.

19:58 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: Well, I do think people take offense at the things that Trump says, and I do think they're worried that he may enact some of what he says. But I think they've come to expect his first four years that you're going to get a lot of threats and a lot of efforts to bully Mexico to do what he wants. And so we'll see how Claudia Sheinbaum does in facing that. And this will be an interesting issue because we haven't seen that many instances where Mr. Trump respects female leaders either. So this will be a real challenge for Claudia Sheinbaum if he gets elected on several different levels. She's a capable person and a smart person, and we'll see what happens, but I could see it being a difficult relationship.

20:45 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: AMLO, on the other hand, actually sort of had an informal deal with Trump. He would do what Trump wanted on the frontier as long as Trump stopped paying too much attention or didn't pay too much attention to what AMLO was doing inside Mexico. They actually sort of got along in that sense, in part because actually they each have a similar approach to a number of aspects or politics. But I think it'll be different. This is different. Claudia Sheinbaum is a different person. But they do know they sell 80% of their exports to the United States. Millions and millions of their jobs depend on being able to sell to the United States. There's over $100 billion worth of US investment in Mexico. So for Mexico, this is a very important relationship, and it is for the United States also. We have about 5 million jobs directly supported by trade and investment with Mexico, so there's a lot at stake.

21:48 聽聽聽聽聽MM: Ambassador, thank you so much for joining Big World to talk about Mexico's democracy, its election, and US-Mexico relations. It's been a pleasure to speak with you.

21:58 聽聽聽聽聽EAW: Thank you for inviting me. It's been my pleasure too.

22:00 聽聽聽聽聽MM: Big World is a production of the School of International Service at 海角换妻 in Washington. Our podcast is available on our website, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. If you like what you hear, be sure to leave us a rating or review. Our theme music is It Was Just Cold by Andrew Codeman. Until next time.